Light snow pack expected to continue drought conditions

SANDERS COUNTY – With the winter solstice past, the weather will only continue to get warmer, which means thoughts will turn to water issues and drought conditions.

It is still early, but projections are not looking great for relief from the drought in the immediate future. According to the National Weather Service branch in Missoula, snow packs have been slightly lower than normal for this time in the season. 

The NWS’s readings state the upper Clark Fork is at approximately 96 percent of normal, as of Friday, January 22; the lower Clark Fork is at approximately 79 percent.

“The northwest part of the state fared not as well,” said Bob Nester, of the NWS in Missoula. “They generally have a deficit of about 15 to 20 percent of normal for snow water equivalent. The farther south you go, the better things are.”

He noted the main reason for the lower averages was due to storms not hitting the area. The current El Nino effect causes lots of the wet storms to move south along the coast, avoiding this area.

The area may not see much relief in the immediate future. Nester said projections indicated the next few weeks would not see much snowy precipitation coming to the Sanders County area; snow may hit higher elevations, but the jet stream is sending the majority of the precipitation elsewhere.

It was noted, however, that the majority of the snowpack usually arrives in the latter half of the winter; Nester said that over the course of the next few weeks, the area may get more snowstorms with lots of precipitation.

As of January 19, reports said the area is still considered under heavy drought conditions. There has been some drop in severity, thanks to winter storms, but there are still drought conditions. Nester said he did not see much relief coming in the next few months, if the current weather patterns persist.

The warming weather could have other issues to the area as well. During fire season, numerous fires swept through the area. As a result, as the weather begins to warm there will be danger of mudslides around the burn scars. If a heavy rain or warming trend brings lots of free-running water to the area, the burn scars could turn into landslides.

There has already been some sign of this. On Saturday, January 23, several large boulders slid onto the road on Highway 200. The rocks did not block traffic for long and were moved quickly; by Saturday afternoon, traffic warning signs had been set up by road crews.

The weather service monitors these areas and will issue flash flood warnings if it looks like enough precipitation will hit an area to cause problems.

“That’s a distinct possibility,” Nester said of the landslide risks.